Boin and Lagadec (2000)

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Crisis Change

Crises and contingencies are changing shape, becoming,

"increasingly transboundary and interconnected".

The authors agree with Perrow's (1984) Normal Accident Theory (NAT), that systems are complex with tightly coupled elements (See my essay on the Challenger incident for an explanation of Perrow's theory).

Traditional faults are an extension of the organisational routine and include the following:

1. A predictable, isolated incident, which is easily managed
2. Procedures and costs are well known, with limited interveners needed
3. Clear cut roles, responsibilities and hierarchies

This model may have been useful a decade ago, but it is ineffective now. The modern crisis is the result of many converging factors and requires the collective knowledge and co-ordination beyond the technical team.

A modern crisis includes the following:

1. Unprecedented event, with high costs and greatly affects large population
2. "Snowball dynamics" due to elements being interconnected
3. Emergency systems ineffective and critical communication problems
4. Extreme uncertainty and development of threats over a period of time
5. A large number of actors and organisations bursting onto the scene simultaneously

Modern crisis

Anticipated resilience

Prepare for the unknown